Timing Is Everything
And why EV strategy is like pit stops
There are clear parallels between electric cars and the 1993 European Grand Prix. The race at Donington is famous for the brilliance of Ayrton Senna, who charged from fifth to first on the opening lap and went on to win the race, the difficult conditions giving him a rare opportunity to challenge the dominant Williams-Renault FW15C.
What made the race particularly difficult wasn’t the rain but the track continually shifting between wet and dry, requiring constant assessment of the weather conditions to in order change tyres at the appropriate moments.
The golden rule of motor racing is to be on the right tyres at the right time, but in highly changeable conditions sometimes you just have to take the pain. Whereas the victorious Senna made four stops, second-placed Damon Hill made six and Alain Prost made seven – in an attempt to always be on the right rubber, Williams ended up chasing its tail (there were actually mitigating circumstances, but the point stands).
So what does all this have to do with EVs? In the last six months or so we have seen many manufacturers write off 10s of billions of dollars in EV investment, a consequence of going all-in years prior in an attempt to get a jump on the competition.
In defence of the executives involved, at the time 2030 internal combustion bans were looming, so quickly developing a portfolio of pure-electric cars seemed prudent. Trouble is, that timeline was only achievable in the fevered dreams of the politicians who thought up the regulations, so car makers were left peddling immature products to reticent customers while the goal posts continually moved.
With internal combustion bans being delayed and emissions regulations being softened (or eliminated in the US), many of those manufacturers that bet big on pure-electric have announced renewed investments in internal combustion: General Motors, Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz to name just a few.
This is another attempt to be on the right tyres at the right time, yet comes just as pure-electric demand is soaring thanks to an international oil crisis. For all the billions of dollars that have been torn up, it’s possible that the only thing sillier than having gone head-first into EVs at the outset would be to step back from them now.
Manufacturers that have weathered the storm best – including but not limited to Toyota and BMW, though the likes of BYD and GWM have capitalized brilliantly – are those that have bided their time and kept as many options open as possible. In effect, they stayed out on worn wets on a drying track or attempted to survive a quick downpour on slicks.
On the face of it this is poor governance; you’re spreading your R&D capital more thinly on products that are compromised by not focusing on one powertrain. The new BMW X5 will offer petrol, diesel, plug-in hybrid, pure-electric and hydrogen variants and this flexibility will inevitability come at a cost in terms of packaging. However, the guiding light in all this has been “Give the customer what they want”, as they’ve proved in many cases they’re willing to pay a premium for it.
The market is finding its equilibrium and what I hope will happen is we’ll get to a 95:5 model. For the vast majority of people an electric car is great and they will replace the ICE car in the same way the car replaced the horse, by being quicker, more comfortable and less hassle.
This will allow enthusiast cars – whether that be performance, utility or off-road – to continue as the horse. Outdated, perhaps, but fit for purpose and, more importantly, very enjoyable. I would like to see the regulations reflect this. Perhaps manufacturers could be allowed a certain number of vehicles – say 50,000/year or five per cent of production or whatever it might be – to not necessarily be exempt from noise and emissions regulations, but not strangled to the point of undesirability.
EV Macan? Fine. EV 911? No. EV GLC? Great. EV C63. Definitely not. And so on and so forth. Perhaps the manufacturer that manages it best can get a giant Sega trophy with Sonic the Hedgehog on it (Google it).